A previous blog post from April 10, 2005
Hokay. I try to think of five particularly communistic things going on in my life every morning, every evening, during the day, to find reasons for being grateful for. It’s a ritual I try to practice constantly, but if I begin the day with it, it’s a lot easier to remember for the rest of the day.
I’m going to let the numbers on the lottery draw last night be my first, even though it’s really easy. Those numbers did good and I have a lot of good feeling about what hit last night. It’s cheating, but I’m going to be grateful for that anyway.
Hokay. Number two. It snowed last night. It’s April, everything was budded out, and it damned well snowed. Maybe you think I’m not grateful, but I am. If the frost gets those buds for a third time there ain’t going to be any apples, apricots, grapes, pecans, but there’s always another year, and we need the moisture, probably more than we need the fruit this year. It’s been a long drought and the moisture deficit isn’t entirely made up, even with all the rain and snow this winter. Yeah. I’m grateful. Yes, I am. I can feel it, reluctant, squirming, fighting every inch of the way, but grateful is emerging.
Number 3. Tres. I’m grateful for these affirmations. That’s an easy one too, cheating, but they’ve had an enormous influence on my life for the past decade, and sometimes I forget to be grateful for knowing how good they are for me. And besides, it fills a slot, allowing me not to have to confide to you what some of the ‘really communist’ troubles I’m going to have to be grateful for before I get past these affirmations in my private mind, this morning. But those are none of your business, so I’m going to try to keep this clean and well lighted.
Number 4. Quatro. Lessee. A cat just took a dump on the rug over there across the room. Knows better than that, but did it anyway. It means, hopefully, that the cat was communicating to me the litter box is getting too full. I’m grateful that cat reminded me of my neglect. I haven’t cleaned it up, but when I do I will examine the stool and make certain the cat wasn’t telling me something else, something more important. I’m grateful a cat will tell a person willing to listen what’s going on with it, what sort of health problems might be hidden there in that pea brain, wanting to come out but not knowing how.
Number 5: Half an hour after daybreak and the wind’s coming back up outside. I’m grateful for that wind, that howling and clattering of things loose on the porch, the rabid windchimes, the cold air whistling in around the old wooden frames of the windows.
Maybe you think I’m not grateful for that wind, but I am. Here’s why.
Hmmmmm. Hmmmmmm. I am. Just give me a minute here.
Ahhhh.. I’m grateful for that wind because it’s going to melt the snow quickly. Maybe even soon enough to save the blossoms and buds. Maybe that old wind will just evaporate enough of the snow, good old wind, temperature 37 degrees F, maybe it will have all that snow gone in no time at all and the new grapevines won’t lose their buds, the apples will be okay.
A lot of people mightn’t be grateful for that wind howling to blue blazes out there, me sipping my coffee here, typing, feeling the cold air on my bare ankles, but I am. Yes, I am.
46 Responses to New Ice Age to Begin in 2014
If that’s the case, there may be a better window of opportunity to prepare. Any information on what the predicted temps would be?
That’s easy. North of the latitude of New York never above 0 deg C. Equator – no change. Gradual change from one to the other. All that happens is that the cold will get closer to the equator. The band that supports life gets much smaller.
Summer span decades but winter can last a lifetime!
Cold winds are rising…
“I’m inclined to take his forecasts seriously.”
let’s hope it’s a little ice age and let’s hope it comes soon, BEFORE all the heat sources are shut down.
I disagree. I estimate 2016 as the start of major cooling as temperature descend towards SC 25. The ice age proper will impact a few years later, maybe 2020-2022.
I disagree, the series of cooler weather will impact Crops instantly and by the second year there will wide spread crop failure & Famine, cost of fossil fuels will skyrocket and the Aid to the 3rd world will end. It will be a swift fall.
And I still have my money on the Winter of 2012/2013 as the beginning.
Joe Bastardi has opined that the weather only needs to retreat back to the cooling period cycle level between the fifties and seventies for a lowering of crop yields and hence chronic food shortages. The technological advances in crop yield cannot keep up with weather variability.
I see some reports from Alaska that some farmers have not been able to sow their crops in the last couple of years due to seasonal snow not clearing on tome for the growing seasons..
If it is just a little ice age we are lucky.
On the other hand does a Big ice age start off with something like a little ice age?
If I recall the last big ice age ended with a short but significant period of warming followed by the younger dryas that lasted 1300 to 1600 years before the current interglacial set in. Would it not be reasonable to assume that a big ice age would be preceeded by a cooling trend or mini ice age and then into the big deep freeze for 105,000 years?
You’re seeing clearly. I fear that we’re headed into a little ice age, and thence into a bigger one that will reach its greatest extent after about 5,000 years.
Does this mean that I shouldn’t move back to Massachusetts? The employment situation down here in Florida is pretty sad. I need a job! Where should I move?
The ice age — cold period — could come or begin even sooner, perhaps as soon as the coming winter. That beginning should, or could, happen as soon as this year, as some of the earlier comments suggested. Regardless, it is certainly on the way/
Especially if lots of thermonuclear warheads explode in 2013 …
You bet there will be an ice age of some sort, the only question would be, how bad.
I tend to agree with eco-geek. As this La Nina fades, and as we go into SC 24 peak, I think there could be a bump over the next couple years.
Of course, the CO2-centrics will use any bump in global temp to blame it on man, but El Sol and Mama Gaia will call their bluff soon enough. IMHO
2014 ok maybe cooling begins, but someone could tell me the real impact this would have on the planet’s southern hemisphere, what I see and read is the only real impact on the planet’s northern hemisphere. my doubts is – what would by the real impact on tropical country such as Brazil, where much of it have a warm weather, cooling in theory would have little impact on him, and as a country would suffer minor impact on food production.
pedro you may find Professor Ian PLIMERS book Heaven and Earth a handy source of past history of earths changes, his Latest book
How to get expelled from school is smaller and still informative.
for eg australia can expect DRY cold and a lot more wind..bad news for croplands and animals. cold weather slows growth and means needing more food to keep warm, wind just adds chill factors and also removes topsoils.for us thats a real downer as we have little anyway to begin with:-(
remember the snow killing cattle in brazil last year? well a bit more ongoinmg would kill trees as well so your land would like aus then get less rain etc etc.
Plimers books are a must read for serious geological histories of our planet. because he speaks TRUTH to Power he is ignored and abused by MSM and warmist agenda govt here.
one day soon he will be vindicated and I want to see our idiot pollies have to apologise!
Aside from being a professional civil engineer, I have read a conserable amount of fairly detailed history, and of the beginnings of the Little Ice Age and its end.
Given the crazy and mixed up weather of the last couple of years, it is my opinion that we have indeed already entered an ice age, perhaps much worse than the Little Ice Age.
I have also been reading quite a bit about this subject (got started with Robert’s books), and I have to agree that the current interglacial is at an end. I believe that we will begin to see statistically significant increases in ice mass and volume at to poles and high altitudes within just a few years.
The deserts will increase in size as well, and the amount of land available for farming will shrink along with the growing season in many locations. Unfortunately, as many have noted here, this will lead to increased food costs and to famine for those least able to afford food.
All of this will happen while people are still anticipating catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, and proponents of CAGW will point to the famines and say, “See, told ya so.” just as they are doing now with the blizzards and cold in Eastern Europe.
Hi Jay, have to agree with para 1.
Para 2, I am not to sure. As temps drop growing conditions in hot areas will improve. This will be subject to rain fall. Areas closer to the Poles will be adversely affected with growing seasons possibly becoming non existent, but areas that are to hot and dry now may improve.
Considering here in Sydney, Australia we are having a claytons summer (ok a non-summer…lol) Im thinking its going to be very much cooler yet. I seen a newspaper article recently that said “clouds are lower to the ground than ever before in the last 10 years” and that this is only being recently discovered, more proof again our planet is cooling rapidly.
Im sure there must be more to this article than the agw angle – http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/falling-clouds-could-counter-global-warming-20120222-1tmpw.html
I belive we are entering a new cold period as well. I belive we should start pulling together as human beings and start growing crops where ever we can. I also think we should build green houses where ever we can too. We all can survive this if our Governing bodys will allow it.
I have been researching the salt changes for years. Mapped the velocities of our planet in order to find answers to my own questions.
Circulation is the only reason we have movement of atmospheric gases and changes to our biosphere. The creation of precipitation and evaporation is NOT from the sun but our own planets mechanisms.
As far as currents scientists are concerned, they know enough and have all the answers by way of mathematical calculations. Bull crap!
Question? We measure atmospheric pressure by way of covering regions. Yet if you go down a steep hill, your ears pop.
Is that not pressure differences?
So, we are not measuring pressure correctly.
I suggest any of you who farm make contact with nth hem growers with Heritage short season seeds now.
or extreme sth hem growers as well.
avoid all hybrids.
and look to short season veg seeds for personal use too.
cant hurt+ may save your families going short.
I don’t think you can predict a drastic cooling pinpointed to a year unless there is a cataclysmic event such as a major volcanic eruption e.g. Pinatubo. However, a gradual cooling and greater erratic feature to weather that we have been seeing since the late 1990s is the start.
Pedro – re: Brazil – southern states of Brazil have seen snow 2 or 3 out of the past 5 winters after not seeing snow in 80+ years (my wife is from Rio). The cooling seems to be more pronounced in the southern hemisphere.
I think we will see continued erratic weather and areas of drought expand especially in tropical areas given cooling. In places such as where I live where snow before early November and after April 10th is rare, you start to see the snow earlier and later (in 2011 despite the warm winter we are having we had 8.5″ of snow on 10/29). Going into a mini ice age does not mean the end of heat waves, but increased erratic weather with a cooler bent overall…lower winter lows, later spring frosts, earlier fall frosts, intense storm systems – all of which have effects on crops.
Here in the US they continue benign neglect. One of the few areas warmer than normal the past 4-6 weeks has been the US and Canada east of the Rockies. All we hear about how this is proof of global warming while we ignore snow in northern Africa and most of eastern Europe in an incebox.
Larryoldtimer, I found an article about game simulations:
Some Historical Comparisons: Medieval France tops the list, with a 14th-century density upwards of 100 people/sq. mile. The French were blessed with an abundance of arable countryside, waiting to be farmed. Modern France has more than twice this many people. Germany, with a slightly less perfect climate and a lower percentage of arable land, averaged more like 90 people/sq. mile. Italy was similar (lots of hills and rocky areas). The British Isles were the least populous, with a little more than 40 people per square mile, most of them clustered in the southern half of the isles.
“Midieval Demographics Made Easy: Numbers 4 Fantasty World”
Still I´m glad the winter here in the southern half of Scandinavia was rather mild this season 2011/2012. It´s like our normal winter went down to sout-east Europe this year :D!
I have been following the russian scientist for several years, what they have been saying. And they have been dead on right on several topics. If we look what is happening now in the North Atlantic; the trawlers are filled to the deck with cod. And this was already predicted in this FAO report from 2001, by Leonid B. Klyashtorin,”Climate change and long-term fluctuations of commercial catches. The possibility of forecasting”. FAO FISHERIES TECHNICAL PAPER 410, 2001. link:
And also, by Gary D. Sharp,“Future Climate Change and regional fisheries; a collaborate analyses”. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper 452, utgitt i 2003.
It is important to notice that none af those two reports were considered by IPCC.
They explain, btw, why the population of sardines has collapsed outside Portugal and Spain and why we now experience the record catches of cod; the eastern board of the sea floor of the North Atlantic is now cooling; that is good for cod, but bad for sardines.
Then about the big fluctuations in climate. Even through the disaster years from 1801 to 1815, there were some years where the crop yield was good in Norway.
But, the disaster years showed us that we were in the extremes. In 2010, in the two most northern counties in Norway, Troms and Finmark, the winter was hars and the spring was very cold. The result was that the fields were still frozen i June and they could not produce any hay for sheep and the cattle this year. Many farmers had to give up. And our Agriculture minister, visting the farmers, managed to say, he still believed in Global Warming.
The other two extremes we have experienced the last two years in Norway, were the record low temperatures in December 2010 in the southern part; Ullensvang, an agriculture station, started their measurement of temperature i 1812, I think… Never had they measured so low deep temperatures from their starting point. The other thing, for 3 consecutive years, the grain fields at Ringerike have been wet, wet and fungus infected. The culmination came last summer. No grain yielded from this harvest in southern Norway can be used for human consumption, and this is our grain basket. UNLESS Mattilsynet, our food agency, increase the upper limit for fungus in the grain.
YOU MAY ALSO HAVE TO GUARD YOUR CROPS. IN ZIMBABWE IT WAS DONE WITH A MAN WITH RIFLE ATOP A PLATFORM. IN MY AREA OF CENTRAL CA IT IS DONE WITH HIGH FENCES OF COMMERCIAL FARMS.
That prediction is about 10 years late. The next ice age began about 2004
And peaked in 2010, the hottest year for 8,000 years, I suppose.
You guys are funny.
In your dreams. 1930 ?? Medieval Warm Period. Many more if I do some homework.
Although the following has no scientific merit, I would just like to tell a little mind experiment I did about a year ago, just for cheer fun and out of curiosity :
I asked myself, without thinking about it, what would a major newspaper headline look like in 2013 !
The spontaneous image in my imagination of the headline read as follows: “Major cities being evacuated due to massive snowstorms”, something to that extent.
Well, viewing all these villages in eastern Europe and northern Italy on the internet this winter, I wonder whether my spontaneous vision for 2013 might contain some truth in it.
I would like to know whether some of the readers from iceagenow have intimations, forebodings or visions concerning our near future climatechanges ?
Mr Habibullo Abdusamatov is very professional and well informed scientist.
I did a “study” of his work and I can tell you one thing: Don’t even doubt his credibility!
There is NOT another ice age coming!!! 2012 will be known as the year without a winter in the US!!! Record warm temperatures across the lower 48, record lack of snow cover across the US. This is an anomoly, nothing more. In August when we have record heat and lack of rain again in Texas, I’ll be wishing there was an ice age coming!! It would be nice to get out of the heat for a while…
Dale Robertson the reason for the warm winter in the US this year.Is natrurl factors that accually gave the cold and snowey patterns the last two winters.The NAO and the AO which were strongly postive this winter.When you have a postive nao/Ao the usa tends to have warmer then normal winters.The oppersite is true in a negative nao/ao.
It is physically impossible for an ice age to begin within centuries, let alone a few years!Continental-scale ice sheets take several thousands of years to grow and advance southward as less snow melts in summer. Moreover, we don’t even need to worry about this because the arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet are melting faster than any scientists would have expected just 5 years ago.
There will never be another ice age for as long as human civilization stands. A single chloroflourocarbon factory is more than enough to inhibit glaciation.
You are joking right??
No, I was not joking. My remarks about ice ages are based peer-reviewed scientific research by the relevant experts in this field. An ice age prediction by an astrophysicist is as trustworthy as brain surgery performed by a glaciologist.
The radiative forcing from the long-lived greenhouses we are emitting into the atmosphere far outstrips any potential cooling from the small orbital perturbations. Read real science in the peer-reviewed literature, not the prognostications on amateur pseudoscience blogs.
I never knew we had so much power!
It is because the ice caps are melting that we are about to enter into an ice age of unknown severity.
The oceans will cool, affecting currents and therefore weather patterns.
This will happen quickly once the gulfstream is affected. It will only take a decade to bring growing ice sheets to the northern countries.
Should this coincide with reduced heat from the sun (end of the sunspot cycle), and increased volcanic activity affecting sunlight, then the next ice age is literally around the corner.
No, it is happening because of the ice-age cycle. It’s a cycle, it’s a cycle, it’s a cycle.